What would have happened in the past to people following the 4% rule?
The 4% rule is a retirement guideline popular in the FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) community: withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjust that amount for inflation each year. Originally designed to make your money last 30 years. Learn more
Portfolio Parameters
Success Rate
(30 Years)
92.6%
Worst Start Year
1930
Best Start Year
1943
Median Value
(30 Years)
$9.7M
Portfolio Value After 30 Years per Starting Year
Final portfolio value for each historical starting year
Historical Portfolio Health
Portfolio value at each milestone, adjusted for inflation-indexed withdrawals
>100%
50-100%
25-50%
1-25%
Depleted
| Start Year | Year 10 | Year 20 | Year 30 | Year 40 | Year 50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $3.2M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2012 | $2.6M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2011 | $2.6M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2010 | $2.8M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2009 | $1.6M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2008 | $1.2M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2007 | $1.1M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2006 | $1.3M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2005 | $1.2M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2004 | $1.4M | $3.4M | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 | $814K | $2.1M | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2002 | $604K | $958K | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2001 | $464K | $457K | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2000 | $469K | $642K | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1999 | $1.1M | $1.5M | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1998 | $1.5M | $2.0M | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1997 | $1.8M | $2.4M | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1996 | $2.3M | $3.9M | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1995 | $2.2M | $3.3M | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 1994 | $1.9M | $2.9M | $8.2M | N/A | N/A |
| 1993 | $2.5M | $2.7M | $9.7M | N/A | N/A |
| 1992 | $3.9M | $3.8M | $12.0M | N/A | N/A |
| 1991 | $3.8M | $3.0M | $9.0M | N/A | N/A |
| 1990 | $4.1M | $2.9M | $9.3M | N/A | N/A |
| 1989 | $3.7M | $5.4M | $11.8M | N/A | N/A |
| 1988 | $2.7M | $4.9M | $8.2M | N/A | N/A |
| 1987 | $2.9M | $6.3M | $10.3M | N/A | N/A |
| 1986 | $2.8M | $7.5M | $14.3M | N/A | N/A |
| 1985 | $2.9M | $7.4M | $13.1M | N/A | N/A |
| 1984 | $3.2M | $7.0M | $13.0M | $39.8M | N/A |
| 1983 | $3.9M | $11.8M | $15.3M | $62.5M | N/A |
| 1982 | $2.6M | $11.2M | $11.9M | $40.1M | N/A |
| 1981 | $3.3M | $15.0M | $13.1M | $43.9M | N/A |
| 1980 | $3.0M | $14.5M | $11.1M | $38.2M | N/A |
| 1979 | $3.0M | $12.6M | $19.6M | $45.6M | N/A |
| 1978 | $2.5M | $7.4M | $14.3M | $25.5M | N/A |
| 1977 | $2.1M | $6.5M | $14.0M | $23.3M | N/A |
| 1976 | $2.6M | $7.9M | $21.5M | $42.4M | N/A |
| 1975 | $1.5M | $3.9M | $8.9M | $14.5M | N/A |
| 1974 | $840K | $1.1M | $838K | $0 | $0 |
| 1973 | $907K | $2.0M | $3.6M | $2.6M | $5.2M |
| 1972 | $1.2M | $2.1M | $6.6M | $5.1M | $13.2M |
| 1971 | $1.0M | $2.1M | $6.4M | $3.9M | $8.5M |
| 1970 | $744K | $735K | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1969 | $763K | $879K | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1968 | $1.1M | $1.5M | $1.9M | $1.1M | $0 |
| 1967 | $835K | $622K | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1966 | $735K | $841K | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1965 | $1.1M | $1.3M | $2.0M | $2.3M | $48K |
| 1964 | $1.7M | $1.8M | $4.4M | $8.1M | $12.5M |
| 1963 | $1.4M | $1.3M | $2.8M | $5.5M | $4.3M |
| 1962 | $1.5M | $2.0M | $4.3M | $16.2M | $15.6M |
| 1961 | $1.5M | $1.8M | $4.6M | $17.9M | $14.2M |
| 1960 | $1.8M | $1.7M | $4.3M | $17.8M | $12.7M |
| 1959 | $2.4M | $2.6M | $8.1M | $35.7M | $56.4M |
| 1958 | $1.8M | $2.4M | $6.3M | $19.7M | $39.1M |
| 1957 | $2.1M | $2.3M | $5.1M | $16.0M | $35.2M |
| 1956 | $2.5M | $2.4M | $6.9M | $22.0M | $61.9M |
| 1955 | $3.4M | $5.1M | $12.1M | $44.0M | $121.2M |
| 1954 | $2.8M | $6.0M | $9.9M | $38.4M | $91.5M |
| 1953 | $3.3M | $5.9M | $9.1M | $42.2M | $135.6M |
| 1952 | $3.3M | $6.4M | $12.2M | $40.5M | $198.1M |
| 1951 | $4.3M | $8.3M | $13.9M | $59.4M | $305.5M |
| 1950 | $4.7M | $10.8M | $14.4M | $59.0M | $324.3M |
| 1949 | $3.6M | $10.5M | $13.4M | $54.3M | $267.3M |
| 1948 | $3.7M | $8.6M | $13.8M | $51.3M | $192.6M |
| 1947 | $2.6M | $6.3M | $8.1M | $23.6M | $87.8M |
| 1946 | $3.1M | $9.2M | $10.0M | $34.2M | $122.1M |
| 1945 | $2.6M | $9.8M | $15.8M | $40.3M | $153.7M |
| 1944 | $3.3M | $10.4M | $24.4M | $44.3M | $183.2M |
| 1943 | $3.4M | $12.8M | $24.9M | $41.5M | $205.2M |
| 1942 | $2.3M | $8.1M | $16.1M | $31.9M | $109.0M |
| 1941 | $1.4M | $5.9M | $11.2M | $18.3M | $76.8M |
| 1940 | $1.3M | $5.5M | $12.2M | $15.7M | $62.2M |
| 1939 | $1.4M | $5.0M | $14.3M | $18.1M | $71.8M |
| 1938 | $738K | $1.7M | $2.9M | $3.4M | $7.3M |
| 1937 | $1.3M | $3.5M | $8.5M | $10.9M | $31.9M |
| 1936 | $1.8M | $6.1M | $19.0M | $21.3M | $75.3M |
| 1935 | $1.3M | $3.3M | $12.3M | $19.7M | $50.1M |
| 1934 | $1.8M | $6.5M | $21.9M | $52.3M | $97.1M |
| 1933 | $1.4M | $5.0M | $19.4M | $38.2M | $64.8M |
| 1932 | $682K | $1.3M | $4.1M | $7.7M | $14.1M |
| 1931 | $504K | $437K | $782K | $610K | $0 |
| 1930 | $403K | $184K | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1929 | $692K | $907K | $2.8M | $7.6M | $9.2M |
| 1928 | $1.5M | $1.7M | $6.8M | $16.3M | $27.0M |
| 1927 | $1.3M | $2.2M | $7.7M | $21.2M | $29.8M |